I am glad I was not trading today, I can see 4 hours back CL moved 1500 ticks in 2 minutes, and ES moved 1000 ticks in those 2 minutes.
Is this a very unusual thing or do traders expect something like this once a year…
My understanding is if I was in a 10 tick sl trade on CL, the speed at which the market probably moved at that point of time must have costed me I dunno something like 200 to 500 ticks, I am just guessing.
And what happens then, considering my account does not have enough to pay for 500 ticks loss, does ninjatrader come after me looking for me in some god damn pacific island where I am hiding in a coconut shed enjoying my fried fish.
Or is my liability limited to my account size.
Eager to hear how people react to event like this and how do they deal with it, or even safeguard themselves against something like this.
Also eager to hear how often have people seen something like this, I am a newbie and for me I had never seen any move like this but then I rarely look at the chart so my not having seen something does not really count.
Your financial responsibility is always UNLIMITED.
A move like this one is very exceptional. I think that there was a lot of insider trading.
At two different times not long before the news was spread, there were 2 huge spikes in volume in ES. Volume went suddenly up 60x! Trump controlled the timing for when to communicate, so… He was clearly not the only one…
But how will they come after me, will they seize my australian bank account, and how much slippage can one expect in such events, 100 500 1000 ticks?
On the whole this is very disturbing, it almost seems to me there is no point being in the market till there is a regime change in America. I think this entire year so far the markets have been untradable from technical analysis point of view atleast.
Were you not trading his first term? He would make the shares of large companies drop 1-5%+ just from tweets. Last year he said on his social media that its a great time to buy and the S&P 500 went up 9.5%.
My trading plan would not allow for being short while moving past 5 month lows. The ES touched November lows on Friday and gapped below them on the Sunday open. Where that November pivot is positioned on the YTD chart has the tendency to induce a lot of eyeball action. So for a lot of trading styles this 6500 area is a real inflection point - even before the Trump post.
At any rate, this probably does call for a review of position sizing and extreme scenarios. That spike could have easily slipped the stop 30+ points. Flipping crazy.
One thing I will add, is that my account at the Chicago VPS with a 5ms ping to the CME and a 10ms ping to Truth Social scored a 175 point win in the ES. Yeah baby!
i think the most important thing is that the person making the decision is not doing insider trading otherwise his/her decision making is obviously compromised.
From a technical analysis point of view is there something I can check which will tell me if the market movement is normal or abnormal.
I guess the VIX indicator might be the starting point for this, grok tells me best to shut down algo trading when VIX crosses 22. Such a simple step can be automated by the Algo themselve, but I imagine that people who are making decent returns on their strategy are surely also checking few parameters manually and turning things on and off.
You could consider using options gamma exposure services to see how dealers are positioned based on the service’s models. This can give you a clearer idea of how the trading day may play out. Keep in mind that not all services use the same methodology, so the insights they provide can vary. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oJqC9QK-I0
Guys, please don’t infect this forum with your politics.
Nobody here cares about your political opinions.
There are other forums where you can discuss your political views.
This is not one of them.
Thank you
This is not politics, we are discussing movement of charts…the president of america is personally earning over a billion dollars a day through insider trading and key stock investments before announcing death and destruction to millions of people…as you correctly pointed out there are other forums where we can discuss the death and destruction of innocent people, here we are discussing the manipulation of the market, how to detect it and how to exit before a disastrous move like we saw a week back happens again.
If you have any suggestions regarding the process that a trader should follow in order to exit the markets knowing that none of the patterns will be honored you are most welcome to comment, otherwise you are the one who is wasting people’s time on the forum…and please stop sharing the link to your commercial products on this forum, this forum is not for advertising.
You can have a discussion about the markets and wild price action without spewing out useless political remarks. Your first paragraph reeks of political bias and how you phrased your sentences shows your clear hatred of the US president. “The president of US making billions a day” and “market manipulation” are pathetically laughable and figments of your imagination. If you feel markets are manipulated, then stay out and don’t trade. Shit happens. If it isn’t the president, it’s the FOMC, or CPI or some other event. Who’s manipulating the market and benefiting from them? These are the risks you accept when you trade.
I’m not here advertising my commercial products even though many others have done the same on this forum. If someone asks about a product that I offer, yes, I will let them know it exists. Otherwise, I’m not advertising nor forcing anyone to buy anything. Yes, I offer a service. Since when is it a crime to make an honest living building products that people want and need?
I’m done with this thread. Not going to respond to whatever you or anyone else has to say in this thread.
My advice is to limit your risk, if you are concerned about volatility. Move your targets closer to your entry. This will improve your win/loss ratio and increase the probability that you’ll be out of the market before it turns against your position. Also, try trading on a shorter-term chart. Instead of 15 Minute, why not 5 minute or 1 minute? You’ll end up with smaller gains and losses (probably) but more trades.
More importantly, depending on the size of your account (I’m assuming it’s fairly small), try trading Micros. MES is less likely to blow out your account at $1.25 per tick than is ES at $12.50 per tick. As a beginner, I highly recommend you start as small as you can. Your account will last longer, giving you time to learn.
You might consider trading options. You can put a “collar” on your ES position (if you’re long. Buying a Put at your stop price and selling a Call near your target to help pay for the Put). If the market moves through your stop price, the Put guarantees you’ll lose what you expect.
Finally, trade a simulation account, for months, in real-time, without risking any real money. Day’s like the one you’re highlighting really arent that unusual. They may be infrequent, but they happen. You need to test your trading approach in all kinds of market conditions before you risk a dime. Otherwise, you wont expect days that will move outside your system’s parameters and your account will get blown out.
I have so much to say on this, but I will hold back. None of it is good.
I expect anything to happen at any time. I woke up this morning to a market climb of 2000 ticks. (I trade unattended strategies overnight).
If you can only afford a $500 dollar loss, maybe don’t trade CL. Why aren’t you mentioning a stop to protect the account? Regime change in America is comical.
Learn that the market is volatile. Learn to use stops to protect your account. Learn to trade something you can afford a few losses on.
My concern was that the slippage at such a time could be 100 ticks or even more…but then with only primitive basic technical indicators at my disposal I guess I have to accept that as a risk…
I realise now that other than just data mining for good profit confluences I probably need to find parameters to identify the regime in progress (as mentioned on reddit) and filter the confluences based on regimes they are known to work in…
At this point the only regimes I have defined in my system is Sydney / Tokyo session, London session, New York open, New York close.
I guess experienced traders can easily do that manually (define regimes and identify them), but I am pure software guy so I am looking for some documentation that can guide me on how to manually define and identify these regimes…and then later I can look at automating that if possible.
First part is the retrospective part where I should be able to run my indicators on historical chart and label my data based to the regime they are part of, and then my data mining can identify in which regime which confluences are working.
Second part would be to set the expected regime before a particular session so that only those confluences that work in such a regime are traded. This part is even more complex and would require more advance trading knowledge.
I would suggest you install a fast data series (1 second, 50 tick, etc) that you use as your final ‘panic filter’. If you see these fast bars becoming too large (‘large’ being something you define, as in ‘how large is too large’ and ‘how many bars’) then this denies any trade setup currently being considered.
These panic bars could help your software identify a black swan event.
Slippage - retail software and its design. You’re going to have slippage; the amount = the market’s speed.
I use someone else’s product running within Ninja; I no longer do my own. Counting my time, ongoing maintenance, and development, it’s easier for me. Especially when I can ask for something and get it quickly.
I do what you are saying, I think! I backtest/optimize my strategies for the different markets. (US, Asia, London). One strategy could have three completely different settings for each market.
Even then, there will be times when I can’t account for world events, resulting in bad days. The strategies, as designed, take into account market changes. If the market screams to a halt or becomes overly active, it won’t trade.
The first and most important thing to do is find a way to define the trend. Only then you will maybe be consistent profitable in the long run.
Next thing you should never do is install fast data series (1 second, 50 tick, etc). I will give a simple example: if the trend is long (but you don’t know it) then you will get a lot of “short” signals in your fast data series. But most, if not all, will be in reality pullbacks before the trend continues to go long.
Indicators never have the same interpretation in both directions. Only in the direction of the trend they are useful. For instance:Bottoms in direction of a long trend are profitable, bottoms against the trend are just small corrections in the opposite way and that’s how you catch big losses.
Most of the huge moves go in the direction of the trend. So if you get hit, you probably were trading against the trend.
Yeah baby!
